中国最近审批进口转基因大豆是不得已而为之

大豆主要有两个用途，一是出油，二是做饲料。即便中国自己种转基因大豆，由于耕地面积有限，其产量也不能满足中国畜牧业的需要。中国的粮食生产其实早已经不能自给自足。

中国在 2012 年单猪肉的消费就达到 5200 万吨，合人均 37 公斤。随着中国人生活水平的提高，这个水平仍然会不断攀升。豆粕是猪饲料蛋白的主要来源，在育肥猪饲料中豆粕占 25%左右，仔猪要到 30% 以上。虽然添加鱼粉可以降低豆粕需要，添加一个百分点的鱼粉可以少用 1.5 个百分点的豆粕，但鱼粉现在太昂贵，饲料中通常至多添加 2%。大豆出豆粕率80%，国产大豆要低于这个水平。从饲料转化到可以吃的肉的比率大约是 4。这样每年猪消耗的大豆就是 5200 x 4 x 25% / 80% = 6500 万吨。这相当于美国一国大豆总产量（http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/agr_pro_soy-agriculture-production-soybean）。中国自己的大豆年产量只有 1539 万吨。另外中国也是世界第一养鸡大国，鸡饲料中豆粕的比例与猪饲料相当，尽管鸡肉的转化效率比猪高将近很多，但中国肉总产量约 9000 万吨，其中鸡肉占约20+%，因此鸡肉生产的大豆消耗也是一个非常可观的数字。

中国进口转基因大豆其实是迫不得已，由于大豆产量比中国高且能满足中国需要的美国、巴西和阿根廷种植的都是转基因大豆，中国的进口别无选择。中国政府虽然今年才批准进口转基因大豆，但是很多年以来都是这么干了。因此事实上，不管中国的反转基因控们如何上窜下跳，他们都在直接或者间接地食用转基因的粮食，除非它们自己不吃肉。

由于植物的种植方式和动物的养殖方式截然不同，转基因改良作物的效率远远超过转基因改良家畜。转基因作物的改良效率恐怕也超过了传统作物育种，因此虽然在植物中也有利用基因组选择和传统育种的努力，但转基因改造无疑是一个重要的方向。

现代农业追求的是规模化效益，一个小小的变动乘上一个庞大的数字，结果就非常可观。比如豆油，我听到的事实是国内的豆油厂根本不愿意用含水量高，出油率低的中国产大豆。从农民的角度看，种国产大豆成本高，卖价低，也是无利可图。

如果中国政府继续在转基因问题上藏头缩尾，类似国产大豆国人不愿意种，种了国人不愿意用的情况恐怕会蔓延至更多的作物。

新语丝(www.xys.org)(xys7.dxiong.com)(xys.ebookdiy.com)(xys2.dropin.org)

香港为何衰落

要说香港为什么会衰落，就要先说香港为什么会崛起。

总结成功经验这种事情，向来是一百个人有一百零一个解释。不过委员认为真正靠谱的就一个原因：香港是内地和西方经贸交流的中转站。这个条件在二十世纪下半叶达到最优，使得香港一跃成为国际级的大都市，只不过这样的好机会，之前之后都很难再找了。

Three stories - for the Entrance Exams happening now in China

The Chinese examination for the entrance of universities and colleges is almost a once-for-all solution for the youngsters who want to change their fates.  I benefited a lot after I had taken the exam.  Without it, today I may be staying in a remote village, working on a palm of land, struggling to fill my stomach.  Such fate was once a endless loop as the following story tells.  Once a outsider came to a shepherd kid in a remote place,

'Why do shepherd the sheep?'

'To raise money.' the kid answered.

'What is the use of the money?'

'To marry a wife.'

'Then?'

'To have a baby.'

'And the baby?'

'To shepherd sheep.'

Those conversations are much more fun to be expressed in Chinese.  In my home village, people usually looped on cottages for their sons and their wives.

At my time, not everybody realized how important such exam is.  I should thank wholeheartedly for my parents' vision and courage then.  Though they had not received much education themselves, they had spared almost every penny for me and my sisters' education.

Education not only drives away the stupidity, it but also sets up a network of the people who are receiving it together.  Around 100 years ago, when modern education systems were first introduced to China, local people also doubted them.  But there were also people who have visions and courage like my parents, including a wealthy businessman.  I don't know if this story had a happy ending.  The son of the businessman was however not clever enough.  After several months, the principle asked the man,

'I am sorry to tell you that your son really can't keep up with the rest.  I think you'd better take him home.'

'I don't care whether he can keep it up or not, neither my money.  I only care if he is now studying together with his fellows.'

I guess the son's education was carried on.

I have a third story to wind up this piece.  Everybody realized the importance of this admission exam nowadays.  But some parents are exaggerating it too much.

This year, a student's parents booked a hotel near the examination site to ease the student's anxiety.  Unfortunately, the hotel was maybe so comfortable, that he overslept and missed the exam.  The family was very angry.  They sued the hotel for not have woken up the student in time.  The court was set up soon after the address.  The student unfortunately overslept again on the court day.  Hence he missed the court also.  The case was then dismissed.